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␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓βS␈↓∧ Department of Computer Science, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ ↓H␈↓∧Telephone 415 497-4430␈↓ 
≤May 27, 1980 




␈↓ ↓H␈↓Professor Alvin Alm
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Harvard University
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Kennedy School of Government
␈↓ ↓H␈↓79 Boylston Street
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Cambridge MA 02138

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Dear Professor Alm:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Many␈α
thanks␈α
for␈α
inviting␈α
me␈α∞to␈α
the␈α
conference␈α
␈↓↓Coping␈α
with␈α
Energy␈α∞Supply␈α
Interruptions␈↓.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Here are some comments on some points raised in your excellent summary.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        1.␈α∩Energy␈α∩autarchy␈α∩may␈α∩indeed␈α∩be␈α∩impossible␈α∩within␈α∩the␈α∩political␈α∪limitations␈α∩presently

␈↓ ↓H␈↓accepted␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞present␈α∞Administration␈α∂and␈α∞apparently␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞economic␈α∞and␈α∂political␈α∞academic

␈↓ ↓H␈↓community.␈α∂ However,␈α∞the␈α∂interruption␈α∞of␈α∂supply␈α∞contemplated␈α∂by␈α∞the␈α∂conference␈α∂would␈α∞almost

␈↓ ↓H␈↓certainly␈α∂remove␈α∞these␈α∂limitations.␈α∞ They␈α∂include␈α∞environmental␈α∂opposition␈α∞to␈α∂various␈α∞measures

␈↓ ↓H␈↓for␈αincreasing␈αenergy␈α
production,␈αbut␈αapart␈α
from␈αthat,␈αthere␈αis␈α
a␈αsubstantial␈αopposition␈α
to␈αenergy

␈↓ ↓H␈↓independence␈α
itself␈αif␈α
that␈αindependence␈α
would␈α
permit␈αa␈α
continuation␈αof␈α
what␈αmany␈α
regard␈α
as␈αa

␈↓ ↓H␈↓bad␈αlife␈α
style.␈α Indeed␈α
the␈αword␈α
"autarchy"␈αseems␈αto␈α
be␈αused␈α
mainly␈αas␈α
a␈αpejorative␈α
synonym␈αfor

␈↓ ↓H␈↓"independence".␈α Thus␈α␈↓↓"We␈αcan␈αand␈αshould␈αseize␈αupon␈αthe␈αenergy␈αcrisis␈αas␈αa␈αgood␈αexcuse␈αand␈αgreat

␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓opportunity␈αfor␈αmaking␈αsome␈αvery␈αfundamental␈αchanges␈αthat␈αwe␈αshould␈αbe␈αmaking␈αanyhow␈αfor␈αother

␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓reasons."␈↓ - Russell Train, ␈↓↓Science␈↓ 184 p. 1050, 7 June 1974

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Of␈α
course␈α
it␈α
provokes␈αopposition␈α
to␈α
even␈α
mild␈αproduction␈α
measures␈α
to␈α
mention␈αideological

␈↓ ↓H␈↓opposition␈αto␈αindependence,␈αbut␈α
achieving␈αenergy␈αsecurity,␈αwith␈αor␈α
without␈αa␈αcuto≥,␈αmay␈αrequire␈α
a

␈↓ ↓H␈↓≡ght on this issue.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Harvey␈α∞Brooks␈α∞con≡rmed␈α∞to␈α∞me␈α∞that␈α∞the␈α∞CONAES␈α∞recommendations␈α∞were␈α∞a␈α∞compromise
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αProfessor Alvin Alm␈↓ ¬tMay 27, 1980␈↓ 
nPage 2␈↓ 


␈↓ ↓H␈↓taking␈α
into␈αaccount␈α
what␈α
level␈αof␈α
e≥ort␈αon␈α
the␈α
various␈αsupply␈α
options␈α
was␈αjudged␈α
to␈αbe␈α
"politically

␈↓ ↓H␈↓feasible".

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        2.␈α∞The␈α∞reference␈α∞emergency␈α
for␈α∞policy␈α∞studies␈α∞might␈α∞be␈α
a␈α∞permanent␈α∞cuto≥␈α∞of␈α∞oil␈α
imports

␈↓ ↓H␈↓coupled␈αwith␈αthe␈αnecessity␈αof␈αexporting␈αto␈αallies␈α
half␈αour␈αdomestic␈αoil␈αand␈αa␈αsubstantial␈αamount␈α
of

␈↓ ↓H␈↓coal.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        If␈α
the␈α
cuto≥␈α
is␈α
assumed␈α
to␈α
be␈α
prolonged,␈α
then␈α
production␈α
increases␈α
are␈α
important.␈α Rather

␈↓ ↓H␈↓than␈α∂unemployment,␈α∂one␈α∂must␈α∂consider␈α∂mobilization␈α∂of␈α∂manpower␈α∂for␈α∂crash␈α∂energy␈α∂production

␈↓ ↓H␈↓facility␈αprograms.␈α The␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII␈αconversion␈αof␈αthe␈αautomobile␈αand␈αother␈αindustries␈αand␈αthe

␈↓ ↓H␈↓mobilization of students must be taken as models.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        3.␈α
The␈αstatement␈α
that␈αan␈α
␈↓↓"emergency␈α
or␈αrisk␈α
management␈αsystem␈α
 ...␈α
must␈αnot␈α
rely␈αon␈α
Congress

␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓or␈αthe␈αPresident␈αhaving␈αto␈αmake␈αpolitically␈αdi≠cult␈αdecisions␈αduring␈αthe␈αcrisis"␈↓␈αis␈αambiguous.␈α Does

␈↓ ↓H␈↓it␈α
refer␈α
to␈α
decisions␈α
that␈α
would␈α
be␈α
di≠cult␈α
now␈α
or␈α
decisions␈α
that␈α
would␈α
be␈α
di≠cult␈α
in␈α
a␈α∞time␈α
of

␈↓ ↓H␈↓recognized␈α
crisis?␈α∞ I␈α
think␈α
that␈α∞the␈α
conference␈α
itself␈α∞showed␈α
that␈α
decisions␈α∞that␈α
will␈α∞be␈α
necessary

␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α∃a␈α∃matter␈α∀of␈α∃course␈α∃during␈α∀a␈α∃crisis␈α∃can␈α∀scarcely␈α∃be␈α∃discussed␈α∀in␈α∃polite␈α∃academic␈α∀and

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Government company now.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        A␈α∞risk␈α∞management␈α∞organization␈α∞formed␈α∞today␈α
could␈α∞do␈α∞its␈α∞duty␈α∞only␈α∞by␈α∞preparing␈α
crisis

␈↓ ↓H␈↓plans␈αsome␈αof␈α
which␈αcannot␈αbe␈αadopted␈α
by␈αCongress␈αor␈αthe␈α
President␈αtoday␈αeven␈αas␈α
contingencies.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Prudence␈αwould␈αrecommend␈αpreparing␈αa␈αrange␈αof␈αplans␈αwith␈αthe␈αintention␈αof␈αproposing␈αthe␈αmore

␈↓ ↓H␈↓extreme when an actual crisis occurred.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        4.␈αIt␈αwould␈αimprove␈αour␈αbargaining␈αposition␈αif␈αthe␈αsize␈αof␈αthe␈αstockpile␈αwere␈αa␈αsecret.␈α The

␈↓ ↓H␈↓goal of ≡lling the stockpile by 1987 is ridiculously modest.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        5.␈α
If␈α
we␈α
want␈α
Saudi␈α
co-operation,␈α
then␈α
we␈α
must␈α
promise␈α
them␈α
something␈α
that␈α
makes␈αit␈α
worth

␈↓ ↓H␈↓their␈αwhile.␈α
 The␈αonly␈α
thing␈αI␈αcan␈α
see␈αis␈α
a␈αguarantee␈αof␈α
full␈αmilitary␈α
support␈αincluding␈α
troops␈αin

␈↓ ↓H␈↓case␈αof␈α
a␈αforeign␈αinvasion␈α
or␈αinternal␈αrebellion.␈α
 The␈αdegree␈α
of␈αsecrecy␈αof␈α
such␈αa␈αguarantee␈α
should

␈↓ ↓H␈↓be at their convenience not ours.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        6.␈α
Rationing␈αand␈α
other␈α
non-market␈αforms␈α
of␈α
allocation␈αwill␈α
work␈α
for␈αlimited␈α
periods␈α
in␈αan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αProfessor Alvin Alm␈↓ ¬tMay 27, 1980␈↓ 
nPage 3␈↓ 


␈↓ ↓H␈↓emergency.␈α The␈αemergency␈αmust␈αbe␈αrecognized␈αas␈αsuch␈αby␈αthe␈αpublic,␈αand␈αthe␈αGovernment␈αmust

␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈α∞seen␈α∞as␈α
acting␈α∞e≥ectively␈α∞to␈α∞solve␈α
the␈α∞problem␈α∞-␈α
in␈α∞this␈α∞case␈α∞to␈α
produce␈α∞the␈α∞required␈α∞fuel␈α
or

␈↓ ↓H␈↓import␈α
it.␈α
 Even␈α
with␈α
these␈α
conditions,␈α
long-term␈α
non-market␈α
methods␈α
are␈α
gradually␈αtransformed

␈↓ ↓H␈↓into␈α∞simple␈α∂economic␈α∞relative␈α∂advantages.␈α∞ Thus␈α∂coupons␈α∞and␈α∂allocations␈α∞are␈α∂sold␈α∞on␈α∂the␈α∞black

␈↓ ↓H␈↓market␈α⊃or␈α⊃businesses␈α⊃or␈α⊃homes␈α⊃fetch␈α⊂prices␈α⊃depending␈α⊃on␈α⊃their␈α⊃allocations.␈α⊃ Economically␈α⊂the

␈↓ ↓H␈↓allocations become assets that gather rent.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Nevertheless,␈α∂rationing␈α⊂and␈α∂allocations␈α⊂can␈α∂be␈α⊂used␈α∂in␈α⊂an␈α∂emergency.␈α⊂ It␈α∂is␈α⊂important␈α∂to

␈↓ ↓H␈↓study␈α⊂how␈α⊂long␈α∂di≥erent␈α⊂kinds␈α⊂of␈α⊂allocations␈α∂might␈α⊂remain␈α⊂e≥ective.␈α⊂ It␈α∂seems␈α⊂to␈α⊂me␈α⊂that␈α∂the

␈↓ ↓H␈↓partial success of World War II rationing can be repeated.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α∩agree␈α∩that␈α∩the␈α∩white␈α∩market␈α∪solution␈α∩isn't␈α∩worth␈α∩bothering␈α∩with.␈α∩ It␈α∩is␈α∪important␈α∩to

␈↓ ↓H␈↓recognize␈α
that␈α
the␈αincentive␈α
to␈α
≡nd␈αan␈α
alternative␈α
to␈αa␈α
long␈α
automobile␈αcommute␈α
to␈α
work␈α
not␈αbe

␈↓ ↓H␈↓diluted␈αby␈αthe␈αallocation␈αsystem.␈α Alternatives␈αavailable␈αto␈αan␈αindividual␈αinclude␈αa␈αdi≥erent␈αjob,␈α
a

␈↓ ↓H␈↓di≥erent␈α⊃residence,␈α⊃car-pooling␈α⊃or␈α⊃public␈α∩transport,␈α⊃and␈α⊃the␈α⊃incentives␈α⊃shouldn't␈α∩presume␈α⊃one

␈↓ ↓H␈↓choice␈αor␈αanother.␈α Rationing␈αmight␈αgive␈αpoor␈α
long␈αdistance␈αcommuters␈αtime␈αto␈αadjust,␈αbut␈α
rations

␈↓ ↓H␈↓of low priced gasoline should be temporary.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I'm␈αsorry␈αthat␈αI␈αdon't␈α
have␈αtime␈αto␈αedit␈αthese␈αcomments␈α
for␈αgreater␈αcoherence␈αand␈αtact,␈αbut␈α
I

␈↓ ↓H␈↓hope they will be helpful.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Incidentally␈αthe␈αletter␈αinviting␈αme␈αto␈αthe␈αAspen␈αConference,␈αwhich␈αwas␈αmailed␈αon␈αApril␈α21,

␈↓ ↓H␈↓just␈α⊂arrived.␈α⊂ I␈α⊂didn't␈α⊂notice␈α⊂the␈α⊂address,␈α⊂but␈α⊂your␈α⊂May␈α⊂19␈α⊂letter␈α⊂was␈α⊂addressed␈α⊂to␈α∂Computer

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Service Department instead of Computer Science Department.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I'm looking forward to seeing you again at the SE2 conference.


␈↓ ↓H␈↓Sincerely,



␈↓ ↓H␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Professor of Computer Science